Political predictions they got wrong (No2) – The Long Boom
The Long Boom is subtitled “A future history of the world, 1980-2020 - A vision for the coming age of prosperity”, which really tells you everything you need to know about the books contents and where it goes wrong. It first came out in the year 1999 and was written by Peter Schwartz (chairman of a think-tank and consulting firm who has a history of producing this kind of thing), along with Peter Leyden (a technology and politics journalist), and Joel Hyatt (a Stanford professor).
They argue that everything is getting better thanks to advances in technology and politics and that we are entering a new golden age. To quote the opening chapter “Since the publication of the hardcover edition of this book a year ago, each week seems to bring another positive story: The American economy continues its longest expansion ever. Unemployment is down, wages are up and inflation is nowhere to be seen. Federal surpluses are projected to top $3 trillion over the next decade…” etc etc. The whole book continues in the same way. They predict that tomorrow is always going to be better than today with steady economic growth up until 2020 and beyond. Democracies would flourish everywhere and generally everything would be ok.
My edition of the book came out in the year September 2000. Less than a year later 9/11 happened, completely reshaping the world. By 2008 the planet was hit by the worst global recession since the Great Depression, Russia continues its slide into quasi-dictatorship and the Middle-East seems as crisis ridden as ever. Global warming is a growing problem and doesn’t look like it’s going to be solved anytime soon. It’s quite difficult to know where to start with the Long Boom as almost every prediction it makes is 100% wrong. At no point do the authors ever seem to confront the simple economic truth that long booms usually turn into big crashes, causing disaster for all concerned.I found my copy of the book in a local store where it had been discounted to £3.99. Considering how dated the contents had become I still think I was overcharged.
Peter Schwartz would later go on to write “Inevitable surprises” in 2004, in which he argues that even unexpected events can be predicted and prepared for in advance by looking at economic, political and social trends. If so why didn’t he apply any of this logic to “The Long Boom”? If you look at Amazon.com most of the good reviews for the book are dated pre-2000. No one seemed to have a good word to say for it post-2001. I wonder how many copies it’s sold since then?
l havent seen this before guys.